Comparing Michigan's insurance rate to a helmet choice state is incorrect science. All it shows is that another state has rates that are different, it says nothing about how helmet choice affects the rates.
http://personalinsure.about.com/cs/vehicleratings/a/blautominimum.htm
http://ezinearticles.com/?Automobile-Insurance-Location&id=232034
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/167283/what_factors_affect_motorcycle_insurance.html
http://editorial.autos.msn.com/article.aspx?cp-documentid=434715
These sites above explain that minimum requirements vary by state, and even within a state the rates will vary according to the metropolitan area and other factors. The factors involved are varied and include things such as population density, number of accidents and crime rates.
Your assertion, bugman, relies on the flawed assumptions that cost of insurance from state to state is essentially the same, and that the cost within a state is essentially the same. As you stated earlier,
"not apples to oranges, but apples to apples. if an insurance company in a 'choice state' is charging less, it obviously is paying less. market forces, and accident rates, are fairly consistent state to state despite what the opponents want you to think. insurance rates are based on what insurance companies pay out. lower cost insurance always equals lower payouts. "
Your assumptions are incorrect.
Michigan and a few other states have no-fault insurance, so that adds yet another factor to make rates different between states.
The bottom line is that rates are simply different from state to state, and are even different between different locations in the same state.
I support your assertion that you can look up insurance rates in another state and compare those with what we pay here in Michigan. However, it is a mistake to believe that any difference in cost is due to helmet choice (certainly not the choice factor alone as you imply). There are way too many other factors included in the rate calculations, so while helmet choice is likely to be a component of the calculations, it is not the determining factor.
Our rates in Michigan will be calculated using the factors that exist now, and would add the choice factor when it applies. The only way to know what our rates would do is to know how the choice factor impacts the calculation. At this time, I do not know that impact.
I stand by my earlier statement,
A good statistic would be to do a comparison in a state that recently went to helmet choice. Comparing the before and after insurance rates would give a fair comparison of how (in that state at least) insurance rates have changed.
I want freedom of choice as much as you, gypsy, and a lot of others who may read this forum but not chime in. We need to be factual in order to maintain credibility. Simply stating that you know the facts and we need to find out on our own undermines your credibility, and undermines our cause. Only when we present a credible, defensible position backed up with facts will doubters and fence-sitters be able to seriously consider what we have to say and perhaps change their position. If we fire off unfounded "facts" that cannot be proven, it further entrenches them in opposition.
If you can provide data that supports your assertion and refutes mine, I'm interested in seeing it. I'm fairly certain we would all be interested in seeing it.